New Immigrants Driving Housing Demand, according to Scotia Economics

    TORONTO, July 9 /CNW/ - Canadian immigrants are narrowing the
homeownership gap with their Canadian-born counterparts, according to the
latest Real Estate Trends report released today by Scotia Economics. The most
recent census data available show that in 2006, almost 72 per cent of
immigrants lived in a dwelling owned by a household member, up from 68 per
cent in 2001. The comparable share for the Canadian-born population rose a
more modest two percentage points over this period, from 73 per cent to 75 per
cent.
    "Homeownership tends to increase the longer one has lived in Canada, with
the majority of new arrivals first settling in rental accommodation," said
Adrienne Warren, Senior Economist, Scotia Economics. "Over time, immigrant
families eventually make the move to homeownership, at rates similar to the
Canadian-born population. However, between 2001 and 2006, the homeownership
rate rose for all immigrant groups, regardless of how long they had resided in
Canada. The biggest increase was among those living in Canada for less than 10
years.
    "As recent immigrants to Canada make the transition from renter to owner,
they will increasingly drive housing demand," states Ms. Warren.
    According to the report, the faster transition to homeownership has been
supported in part by strong labour markets. The employment rate for core
working-age recent immigrants jumped 3 1/2 percentage points between 2001 and
2006 (to 67.0 per cent). This was faster than the 1 1/2 percentage point gain
among their Canadian-born counterparts (to 82.4 per cent). The employment rate
for all immigrants also increased over this period, but by a more modest one
percentage point (to 77.5 per cent).
    "The better labour market performance of recent immigrants may reflect a
favourable skills mix, with many employed in high-growth industries such as
engineering, construction and skilled trades. It may also reflect a greater
 geographic mobility to meet shifting regional labour requirements," said Ms.
Warren.
    The report also states that, of the more than one million immigrants that
came to Canada between 2001 and 2006, 69 per cent settled in the three largest
census metropolitan areas (CMAs) - Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver - and their
surrounding municipalities. Meanwhile, a growing proportion (28 per cent) of
immigrants settled in smaller CMAs, most notably Calgary, Ottawa-Gatineau,
Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton and Kitchener. Less than three per cent chose to
live in a rural area.
    "Given Canada's aging population and relatively low fertility rates,
longer-term household formation and housing needs will be largely determined
by immigration," concluded Ms. Warren. "Using standard assumptions regarding
immigration, fertility and mortality rates, the share of Canada's population
growth coming from immigration could rise to three-quarters a decade from now,
up from 60-65 per cent today and almost all by 2030. Most of this growth will
be in Canada's urban areas."

    Scotia Economics provides clients with in-depth research into the factors
shaping the outlook for Canada and the global economy, including macroeconomic
developments, currency and capital market trends, commodity and industry
performance, as well as monetary, fiscal and public policy issues.



For further information:
For further information: Adrienne Warren, Scotia Economics, (416)
866-4315, adrienne_warren@scotiacapital.com; Patty Stathokostas, Public
Affairs, (416) 866-3625, patty_stathokostas@scotiacapital.com; Michelle Cobb,
Public Affairs, (778) 327-5451, michelle.cobb@scotiabank.com