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TORONTO, July 29 /CNW/ - Scotiabank's Commodity Price Index, which measures price trends in 32 of Canada's major exports, rose by 1.2 per cent month-over-month in June, rising to a new record high for the sixth consecutive month. The All Items Index is now 212.6 per cent above the cyclical low in October 2001. The Oil & Gas Index led the way in June, surging five per cent month-over-month and 71.7 per cent year-over-year. The strength in energy prices was broad-based, but led by light crude oil and natural gas export prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil rose from US$125 per barrel in May to US$134 in June and surged to an all-time record high of US$147.90 on July 11 amid tight supplies and Middle East tensions surrounding Iran's uranium enrichment policy. "Oil prices have retreated to the US$124 mark in late July, still 67 per cent above a year earlier," said Patricia Mohr, Vice-President, Economics and Commodity Market Specialist at Scotiabank. "Market attention has shifted from concerns over geopolitical supply risks and disappointingly slow new oil field development to heightened concern over U.S. economic prospects, following the Fed Chairman's semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress, and easing U.S. petroleum consumption in reaction to record oil prices." The partial unwinding of a number of widely-held financial market positions by investment funds has accounted for the steepness of the price reversal. Hedge funds have heavily bought oil futures and options this year as a hedge against a soft U.S. dollar and weak U.S. financial equities. However, a recently steadier U.S. dollar (possibly temporary) and expectations by some funds that U.S. bank stocks are close to bottom has triggered some unwinding of long oil positions. Oil traders have focused heavily on the slowdown in U.S. demand (-3.2 per cent year-over-year), largely ignoring ongoing growth in petroleum consumption in China (up 6.5 per cent year-over-year in June), with world demand still likely to edge up in 2008. "Canada's oil patch is, nevertheless, well positioned to benefit from rising oil export volumes, a pick-up in Western Canada's drilling activity and merger and acquisition activity this fall, spurred by record cash flow, and commodity prices still expected to remain exceptionally high over the balance of the decade," added Ms. Mohr. "Canadian drilling activity has already edged up year-over-year in the second quarter of 2008." The report adds that the first phases of the Horizon project and the Long Lake project, in Alberta's oil sands will come on stream in the second half of 2008. These projects represent one of the bright spots in the global supply picture, amid alarming output declines in Russia, the North Sea and Mexico, recently ignored by Nymex traders. Metals & Minerals The Metal and Mineral Index eased by 0.8 per cent in June, with most base metal prices, except aluminium, loosing ground. However, sulphur prices at the Port of Vancouver leapt to US$750 per tonne in June, up from US$660 in May and only US$55 a year earlier, producing the biggest spike (up 1,264 per cent year-over-year) in the history of the Scotiabank Commodity Price Index. Spot potash prices for overseas sales were unchanged in June at an average of US$525 per tonne, but have jumped to US$762.50 in July. Following the lead of Belarussian Potash Company (BPC), Canpotex has now sold significant spot volumes for shipment to Asian markets in the fourth quarter at US$1,000 cfr (delivered, standard grade) and has advised customers that all new spot sales over the balance of 2008 to Southeast Asia, Brazil and Latin America will be at the US$1,000 cfr level (US$1,025 for granular). This will lift prices to about US$900 at the Port of Vancouver in the fourth quarter, up 211 per cent year-over-year. To handle increased exports from mine expansion in Saskatchewan, Canpotex will almost double its West Coast port capacity by 2012, with a new terminal announced for Ridley Island and expansion at Neptune Bulk Terminals in Vancouver. Spot uranium prices have also rallied back to US$64.50 per pound from a low of only US$57 in mid-June. However, term contract prices fell from US$90 to US$80 in late June. Prices retreated earlier this year alongside lower uncovered utility requirements, though discretionary buying to take advantage of bargain prices has been substantial. Agriculture The Agricultural Index also fell by 4.4 per cent in June to a level still 29.6 per cent above a year ago. Wheat prices have lost significant ground since spiking in February, with a bumper crop expected this year in Europe, better growing conditions around the Black Sea and stepped-up international plantings in areas such as Australia, spurred by higher prices. However, current projections for 2008-09 are likely overstating the increase in world ending stocks, given lingering dryness in Australia and Argentina. "U.S. corn futures have also tumbled on the Chicago Board of Trade from a record US$7.55 per bushel on June 27 to US$5.73 on July 25, alongside lower oil prices and as ideal Midwest weather boosted crop prospects, after the worst flooding in 15 years," said Ms. Mohr. "While these developments have soothed concern over food price inflation, prices remain well above year-ago levels. The grain complex will rally seasonally later in 2008, with oilseeds expected to outperform." Scotia Economics provides clients with in-depth research into the factors shaping the outlook for Canada and the global economy, including macroeconomic developments, currency and capital market trends, commodity and industry performance, as well as monetary, fiscal and public policy issues.
For further information: Patricia Mohr, Scotia Economics, (416) 866-4210, pat_mohr@scotiacapital.com; or Paula Cufre, Scotiabank Public Affairs, (416) 933-1093, paula_cufre@scotiacapital.com